Crypto Market Analysis and Forecast: 11th-14th, April 2023

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As of this analysis, BTC had just broken into a new high of $30,000 after 2-3 weeks of tight consolidation. The widely watched crypto is up by 1.57% and exchanging hands for $30, 100.

The market had been trading between the $26, 500 and $28, 800 regions, an obvious consolidation that started on March 20 into April before today’s breakout.

Some of the key drivers of the coins to the upside are:

  • Inflation Data: The Average hourly wage growth Year on Year recently reported dipped from 4.6% to 4.2% while overall inflation data in the last 8 months has been largely positive. The trend may continue in this direction until Energy, Housing prices and Food Prices pick up again.
  • US Fed Rate Hike: As we approach another round of rate hikes, economic data released so far are already reflecting a gradual slip into recession, hence increasing the possibility of the US Fed pausing its record rate hike.

This sentiment is confirmed on the chart of the 10-year treasury yield;

The 10-year Treasury Yield is largely bearish as seen on the chart above.

You can see the successive lower highs marked 1, 2, and 3.

The summary of this is that investors have been accumulating Treasury/bonds ahead of the pause in a rate hike which means that you may not find fixed income attractive as before.

This bearish move is extremely bullish for the crypto market.

Market Forecast

BTC should pull back to $29,000 which is now the previous resistance turned to support before we see the trend continues.

The next inflation data is expected to dip from 6% annualized to 5.2% while the monthly increase is forecast to cool off.

If the actual figures come out lower than 5.2% (inflation rate), 0.4% (core inflation rate month on month) and 0.2% (for inflation rate month on month), we should see BTC spike to another all-time high above $32,000.

On the downside, a dip below $28,800 will favour the bear.