Crypto Market Analysis and Forecast: 26th-31th, March 2023

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As of this analysis, the crypto market delivered a marginal gain of 1.29% with BTC value depreciating by 0.75% to $27, 762.4.

We witnessed a new Bitcoin high of $28, 868 before the coin pulled back to the critical support of $26,500 (once tested as resistance on March 14th, 2023.

Some of the market-moving events in the past week were:

  • US Fed rate hike by 25 basis points to 5% which was in line with expectations and an apparent deviation from the Fed’s resolve to get more aggressive on its inflation target of 2%.
  • Investors concern that the crisis in the US banking sector wasn’t over.
  • US Fed’s announcement that it may raise the rate one more time to close the curtain for 2023 and deploy alternative tools to bring inflation down.

The market received this news with mixed reactions, hence the obvious volatility in Bitcoin and marginal change against the week’s opening price of $27, 972.

The fear of a further crisis in the banking sector helped dragged the US Treasury yield down by 1.63% to 3.380%, after reaching a new low of 3.28% since September 2023.

Technically the yield has broken an uptrend line that started in December 2021 after forming a lower high on the weekly chart and is currently forming a new low.

Right now, it’s dancing on a key support level of 3.30% – 3.20%, an important region I have repeatedly mentioned in my previous weekly analysis that may signal the beginning of a major trend in the crypto market.

Market forecast for the week:

The crypto market is still in a strong uptrend as long as the price of Bitcoin is well supported above $26,500.

My eyes are on the 10-year treasury yield right now; If we see a close below 3.20%, then BTC may break out of the previous week’s high of $28, 868 to touch $32, 500.

I will consider a change in trend to the downside once BTC fails to hold above $26,500 on rising yield, especially above 3.43%